- Historical models will be compromised. Allocation, Replenishment and Demand Forecasting
- Learn - Recover - Evolve
- Preparing ourself for next time, learn to recover from the current situation
- Store closures
- A significant difference in sales patterns
- 2018 vs 2019 vs 2020
- Execution systems, Replenishment, Forecasting, Automated purchase orders, time-series approaches
- Forecasts systems need intervention
- Analytical systems haven't seen such situations
- Reassess the demand
- Validate Forecasting Numbers / Adjust according to the market situation
- Sales mix will look very different at category/class/subclass level
- Trust your gut feeling
- Having a cross-functional team that understands the demand/operations/foot traffic. All functions planning, fulfillment, store managers work together. Retail community learn from each other
- Test and Learn for short term
- Forecast for shorter timelines and estimate the accuracy of models
- How long reduced sales will continue depends on several factors / economic conditions
- Ensure data is in the best shape to capture the trends
- Identify signals in short / medium / long term
- Understand sales mix identified online and bring it back to offline stores
- Do not open all stores at once
- Go beyond time series, Decision Trees / Deep Learning to include hierarchy/location attributes / COVID parameters/impact - Look at short term / long term forecasts. Supplement with newer features
- Supply Chain - Ensure inventory is in place during the crisis situations.
- How long mitigation process will take?
- Shorter the better
- Start with easy mitigation strategies
- Video - Faster responses / Right time to invest
- Make existing systems smarter (Intuitive)
- Sales are going to be down, the sales mix will be different. Have a rolling sales mix
Keep Thinking!!!
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